Politically, Taiwan’s relationship to Beijing could be characterized primarily as a rift borne of defiance on one side and menacing rebuke on the other. But geologically, the small island of Taiwan appears to be on a collision course with mainland China. Over millions of years, that is.
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Taiwan’s president persists in pushing for independence; Beijing, which last year passed legislation outlawing Taiwan’s secession, has in the past vowed to reunify it with China by force if needed.

Meanwhile, as the Philippine and Eurasian plates converge at eight centimeters a year, the island’s mountain zone keeps gradually growing on its west side. Some parts of the strait are becoming shallower and narrower, said Dr. Byrne of Connecticut. It’s impossible to predict how the plate interactions will change, but if current patterns hold, he said, in a few million years “Taiwan Strait will be gone, will be dry land.”

Will the island and the mainland ultimately reunify? Asked the question at a recent scientific meeting in San Francisco, Dr. Lee smiled enigmatically and chuckled. “If the Chinese can be that patient,” he said.